Thinking in bets was rather underwhelming reading. Maybe because I red the great clear thinking before. The concept of the book is simple, put you money where you mouth is and this will force you to think less binary and explore the possible decision more in depth. I really enjoyed the first part of the book where Annie covers potential pitfalls and how not to fall into them, but in the second book she goes really in depth into building a group of like minded people. This might be great if you are trying to get better in poker but for most usecases I do not see that much value in group like that.

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.

Note: We tend to mistake the outcome for the quality of the decision

Note: Wee need to account for all things when making decision, if we shall tell the propability of coin flip we need to know all about the coin and also who is doing the flip

Making better decisions stops being about wrong or right but about calibrating among all the shades of grey.

By treating decisions as bets, poker players explicitly recognize that they are deciding on alternative futures, each with benefits and risks. They also recognize there are no simple answers. Some things are unknown or unknowable.

In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.

Note: We are prone to interpret the facts to suit our opinions not the other way around.

the smarter you are, the better you are at constructing a narrative that supports your beliefs, rationalizing and framing the data to fit your argument or point of view.

Note: We should get used to using a percentage of certainity instead of simply right/wrong

“Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him.”

The more evidence we get from experience, the less uncertainty we have about our beliefs and choices.

Well-deployed diversity of viewpoints in a group can reduce uncertainty due to incomplete information by filling in the gaps in what we know, making life start to fit more neatly on a chessboard.

When I had the impulse to dismiss someone as a bad player, I made myself find something that they did well.

We can do this by imagining how future-us is likely to feel about the decision or by imagining how we might feel about the decision today if past-us had made it.

Business journalist and author Suzy Welch developed a popular tool known as 10-10-10 that has the effect of bringing future-us into more of our in-the-moment decisions. “Every 10-10-10 process starts with a question. . . . [W]hat are the consequences of each of my options in ten minutes? In ten months? In ten years?”

The way we field outcomes is path dependent. It doesn’t so much matter where we end up as how we got there.

scenario planning. The idea is to consider a broad range of possibilities for how the future might unfold to help guide long-term planning and preparation.”

When it comes to advance thinking, standing at the end and looking backward is much more effective than looking forward from the beginning.